Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-23

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-13) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-13 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-13)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-13) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	462 (415 – 505)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	17 (12 – 33)
Algeria	188 (161 – 213)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	150 (21 – -28)
Argentina	445 (397 – 497)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (9.7 – 24)
Armenia	267 (237 – 298)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	12 (8.5 – 25)
Australia	22 (5 – 36)	Unsure	1.2 (0.7 – 1.7)	18 (4.3 – -8.1)
Austria	53 (36 – 66)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	39 (9.4 – -17)
Azerbaijan	131 (104 – 150)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	24 (11 – -82)
Bahrain	296 (261 – 328)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	150 (25 – -38)
Bangladesh	1615 (1380 – 1854)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (9.4 – 15)
Belarus	1067 (929 – 1197)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	36 (20 – 200)
Belgium	302 (257 – 343)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-29 (120 – -13)
Benin	165 (0 – 22)	Unsure	1 (0.1 – 1.8)	-5 (3.5 – -1.5)
Bolivia	277 (242 – 306)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (11 – 51)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	26 (12 – 37)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-140 (7.9 – -7.1)
Brazil	17743 (15346 – 20518)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	11 (9.3 – 12)
Bulgaria	44 (27 – 58)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	38 (8 – -14)
Cameroon	227 (182 – 267)	Increasing	1.4 (1.2 – 1.5)	8.8 (6.2 – 15)
Canada	1268 (1118 – 1427)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	55 (24 – -150)
Central African Republic	33 (18 – 46)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	15 (5.4 – -20)
Chad	32 (17 – 44)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	22 (6.2 – -14)
Chile	3512 (2927 – 4074)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	9.5 (8.2 – 11)
China	10 (3 – 15)	Unsure	1.2 (0.6 – 1.8)	22 (3.9 – -6)
Colombia	768 (682 – 884)	Increasing	1.1 (1.1 – 1.2)	21 (14 – 41)
Cote dIvoire	51 (34 – 63)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	-59 (15 – -9.8)
Croatia	12 (0 – 24)	Unsure	1.2 (0.4 – 2.1)	100 (2.8 – -3.1)
Cuba	18 (6 – 29)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.6)	36 (5.1 – -6.9)
Czechia	69 (46 – 88)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	19 (7.5 – -35)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	103 (80 – 122)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	14 (7.3 – 89)
Denmark	75 (54 – 93)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-67 (17 – -11)
Djibouti	136 (106 – 166)	Increasing	1.7 (1.4 – 2)	4.7 (3.5 – 6.9)
Dominican Republic	362 (306 – 409)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	37 (16 – -89)
Ecuador	680 (598 – 750)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	12 (8.8 – 17)
Egypt	706 (584 – 835)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (7.8 – 16)
El Salvador	73 (54 – 94)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	38 (9.8 – -20)
Equatorial Guinea	71 (38 – 107)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.8)	6.8 (4 – 24)
Estonia	14 (2 – 25)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.7 – 2.2)	7.3 (2.6 – -8.7)
Finland	52 (34 – 66)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-32 (20 – -8.6)
France	457 (395 – 516)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-66 (59 – -21)
Gabon	84 (63 – 101)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.2)	500 (15 – -16)
Germany	679 (590 – 766)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-68 (78 – -23)
Ghana	161 (131 – 187)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-12 (-67 – -6.9)
Greece	19 (4 – 31)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.6)	42 (4.9 – -6.2)
Guatemala	157 (128 – 181)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	16 (9.1 – 83)
Guinea	96 (75 – 115)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	28 (11 – -41)
Guinea Bissau	34 (20 – 45)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-25 (15 – -6.8)
Haiti	73 (56 – 90)	Increasing	1.4 (1.1 – 1.7)	7.6 (4.7 – 19)
Honduras	133 (108 – 153)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	24 (11 – -75)
Hungary	42 (26 – 57)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	33 (7.6 – -15)
Iceland	2374195 (0 – 1023)	Increasing	2524.7 (0 – 15.4)	0.033 (0.49 – -1.1)
India	6015 (5115 – 6759)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	13 (11 – 16)
Indonesia	712 (582 – 832)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (9.4 – 21)
Iran	2431 (2088 – 2752)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (12 – 21)
Iraq	118 (97 – 139)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	21 (9.5 – -140)
Ireland	103 (80 – 122)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.9)	-12 (-32 – -7.4)
Israel	21 (11 – 30)	Unsure	0.9 (0.5 – 1.2)	-44 (9 – -6.5)
Italy	794 (688 – 877)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-36 (-810 – -18)
Japan	59 (40 – 76)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 1.1)	-20 (34 – -7.7)
Kazakhstan	290 (255 – 322)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (8 – 21)
Kenya	59 (40 – 74)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.6)	8.2 (4.7 – 32)
Kosovo	17 (5 – 29)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 1.8)	15 (4 – -8.2)
Kuwait	1079 (942 – 1214)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	18 (13 – 28)
Kyrgyzstan	43 (26 – 57)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	13 (5.6 – -34)
Latvia	15 (3 – 23)	Unsure	1.3 (0.7 – 1.8)	11 (3.4 – -8)
Lebanon	28 (14 – 39)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.9 – 1.8)	8.9 (3.8 – -30)
Lithuania	19 (7 – 31)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	13 (3.9 – -10)
Luxembourg	18 (5 – 27)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.9)	8.4 (3.1 – -13)
Malaysia	42 (26 – 57)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-130 (10 – -8.7)
Maldives	39 (24 – 54)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-40 (12 – -7.3)
Mexico	2794 (2424 – 3187)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (12 – 19)
Moldova	169 (145 – 195)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	44 (15 – -42)
Mongolia	86 (2 – 159)	Likely increasing	1.8 (0.6 – 3)	4.6 (1.9 – -8.5)
Morocco	96 (73 – 115)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-18 (100 – -8.1)
Nepal	42 (26 – 57)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.6)	13 (5.5 – -31)
Netherlands	205 (164 – 241)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-90 (26 – -16)
New Zealand	214 (0 – 75)	Likely increasing	3.6 (0.6 – 5)	1.9 (1 – -18)
Niger	16 (3 – 27)	Unsure	1.1 (0.6 – 1.7)	38 (4 – -5)
Nigeria	275 (244 – 308)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (15 – -280)
North Macedonia	32 (18 – 44)	Likely increasing	1.2 (0.9 – 1.5)	17 (5.6 – -16)
Norway	25 (12 – 39)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.4)	-180 (6.4 – -6)
Oman	301 (262 – 331)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	21 (12 – 85)
Pakistan	2261 (1935 – 2644)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (11 – 27)
Palestine	13 (3 – 22)	Increasing	1.8 (1 – 2.7)	3.5 (1.9 – 19)
Panama	161 (134 – 190)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-390 (23 – -20)
Paraguay	25 (7 – 41)	Unsure	1.1 (0.5 – 1.6)	-76 (4.7 – -4.2)
Peru	4651 (3997 – 5215)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	15 (12 – 19)
Philippines	258 (215 – 302)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	38 (15 – -77)
Poland	422 (346 – 489)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (15 – -310)
Portugal	257 (212 – 302)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	31 (13 – -82)
Puerto Rico	73 (49 – 91)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	27 (9 – -26)
Qatar	1720 (1519 – 1952)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	20 (15 – 31)
Romania	218 (177 – 252)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-160 (26 – -19)
Russia	10444 (9315 – 11474)	Likely increasing	1 (1 – 1.1)	200 (45 – -85)
Saudi Arabia	2920 (2569 – 3253)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (12 – 19)
Senegal	91 (68 – 107)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-42 (27 – -12)
Serbia	92 (71 – 115)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	22 (8.8 – -44)
Singapore	586 (516 – 655)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-42 (270 – -20)
Slovakia	11 (1 – 21)	Unsure	1.3 (0.5 – 2.3)	8.9 (2.5 – -5.6)
Somalia	57 (37 – 77)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	63 (9.5 – -13)
South Africa	1042 (891 – 1186)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	13 (10 – 18)
South Korea	23 (12 – 32)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.4)	-79 (8.9 – -7.2)
Spain	564 (492 – 631)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.9)	-11 (-22 – -7.2)
Sri Lanka	25 (11 – 35)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.6)	14 (4.8 – -15)
Sudan	204 (168 – 232)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	15 (8.7 – 53)
Sweden	598 (499 – 690)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	43 (19 – -140)
Switzerland	38 (23 – 48)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-42 (14 – -8.3)
Thailand	16 (0 – 30)	Likely increasing	1.8 (0.5 – 3)	4.6 (1.7 – -6.2)
Tunisia	24 (0 – 43)	Likely increasing	2.4 (0.7 – 4.1)	2.4 (1.2 – 200)
Turkey	1356 (1222 – 1471)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-66 (440 – -31)
Ukraine	451 (387 – 511)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	110 (25 – -45)
United Arab Emirates	955 (818 – 1086)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (13 – 32)
United Kingdom	2785 (2592 – 3021)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 0.9)	-24 (-40 – -18)
United Republic of Tanzania	11 (3 – 20)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.3 – 1.1)	-7.2 (23 – -3.1)
United States of America	25830 (22966 – 28914)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	34 (22 – 72)
Uruguay	27 (21 – 33)	Increasing	1.8 (1.4 – 2.4)	5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan	60 (39 – 76)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	34 (8.4 – -16)
Venezuela	75 (51 – 97)	Increasing	1.6 (1.2 – 1.9)	5.1 (3.5 – 9.7)
Zambia	44 (25 – 58)	Unsure	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-16 (38 – -6.5)