Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-23

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-13) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-13 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-13 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-13)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-13) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 462 (415 – 505) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 17 (12 – 33)
Algeria 188 (161 – 213) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 150 (21 – -28)
Argentina 445 (397 – 497) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (9.7 – 24)
Armenia 267 (237 – 298) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 12 (8.5 – 25)
Australia 22 (5 – 36) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.7) 18 (4.3 – -8.1)
Austria 53 (36 – 66) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 39 (9.4 – -17)
Azerbaijan 131 (104 – 150) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 24 (11 – -82)
Bahrain 296 (261 – 328) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 150 (25 – -38)
Bangladesh 1615 (1380 – 1854) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (9.4 – 15)
Belarus 1067 (929 – 1197) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 36 (20 – 200)
Belgium 302 (257 – 343) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -29 (120 – -13)
Benin 165 (0 – 22) Unsure 1 (0.1 – 1.8) -5 (3.5 – -1.5)
Bolivia 277 (242 – 306) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (11 – 51)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 26 (12 – 37) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -140 (7.9 – -7.1)
Brazil 17743 (15346 – 20518) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (9.3 – 12)
Bulgaria 44 (27 – 58) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) 38 (8 – -14)
Cameroon 227 (182 – 267) Increasing 1.4 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.8 (6.2 – 15)
Canada 1268 (1118 – 1427) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 55 (24 – -150)
Central African Republic 33 (18 – 46) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 15 (5.4 – -20)
Chad 32 (17 – 44) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 22 (6.2 – -14)
Chile 3512 (2927 – 4074) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.5 (8.2 – 11)
China 10 (3 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 22 (3.9 – -6)
Colombia 768 (682 – 884) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 21 (14 – 41)
Cote dIvoire 51 (34 – 63) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) -59 (15 – -9.8)
Croatia 12 (0 – 24) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 2.1) 100 (2.8 – -3.1)
Cuba 18 (6 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 36 (5.1 – -6.9)
Czechia 69 (46 – 88) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 19 (7.5 – -35)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 103 (80 – 122) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 14 (7.3 – 89)
Denmark 75 (54 – 93) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -67 (17 – -11)
Djibouti 136 (106 – 166) Increasing 1.7 (1.4 – 2) 4.7 (3.5 – 6.9)
Dominican Republic 362 (306 – 409) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 37 (16 – -89)
Ecuador 680 (598 – 750) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 12 (8.8 – 17)
Egypt 706 (584 – 835) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (7.8 – 16)
El Salvador 73 (54 – 94) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 38 (9.8 – -20)
Equatorial Guinea 71 (38 – 107) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.8) 6.8 (4 – 24)
Estonia 14 (2 – 25) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.7 – 2.2) 7.3 (2.6 – -8.7)
Finland 52 (34 – 66) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -32 (20 – -8.6)
France 457 (395 – 516) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -66 (59 – -21)
Gabon 84 (63 – 101) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.2) 500 (15 – -16)
Germany 679 (590 – 766) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -68 (78 – -23)
Ghana 161 (131 – 187) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -12 (-67 – -6.9)
Greece 19 (4 – 31) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 42 (4.9 – -6.2)
Guatemala 157 (128 – 181) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (9.1 – 83)
Guinea 96 (75 – 115) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 28 (11 – -41)
Guinea Bissau 34 (20 – 45) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -25 (15 – -6.8)
Haiti 73 (56 – 90) Increasing 1.4 (1.1 – 1.7) 7.6 (4.7 – 19)
Honduras 133 (108 – 153) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 24 (11 – -75)
Hungary 42 (26 – 57) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 33 (7.6 – -15)
Iceland 2374195 (0 – 1023) Increasing 2524.7 (0 – 15.4) 0.033 (0.49 – -1.1)
India 6015 (5115 – 6759) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 13 (11 – 16)
Indonesia 712 (582 – 832) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (9.4 – 21)
Iran 2431 (2088 – 2752) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 21)
Iraq 118 (97 – 139) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (9.5 – -140)
Ireland 103 (80 – 122) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -12 (-32 – -7.4)
Israel 21 (11 – 30) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.2) -44 (9 – -6.5)
Italy 794 (688 – 877) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -36 (-810 – -18)
Japan 59 (40 – 76) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1.1) -20 (34 – -7.7)
Kazakhstan 290 (255 – 322) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8 – 21)
Kenya 59 (40 – 74) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.2 (4.7 – 32)
Kosovo 17 (5 – 29) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 15 (4 – -8.2)
Kuwait 1079 (942 – 1214) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 18 (13 – 28)
Kyrgyzstan 43 (26 – 57) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 13 (5.6 – -34)
Latvia 15 (3 – 23) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 11 (3.4 – -8)
Lebanon 28 (14 – 39) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) 8.9 (3.8 – -30)
Lithuania 19 (7 – 31) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 13 (3.9 – -10)
Luxembourg 18 (5 – 27) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) 8.4 (3.1 – -13)
Malaysia 42 (26 – 57) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -130 (10 – -8.7)
Maldives 39 (24 – 54) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -40 (12 – -7.3)
Mexico 2794 (2424 – 3187) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (12 – 19)
Moldova 169 (145 – 195) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 44 (15 – -42)
Mongolia 86 (2 – 159) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.6 – 3) 4.6 (1.9 – -8.5)
Morocco 96 (73 – 115) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -18 (100 – -8.1)
Nepal 42 (26 – 57) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.6) 13 (5.5 – -31)
Netherlands 205 (164 – 241) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -90 (26 – -16)
New Zealand 214 (0 – 75) Likely increasing 3.6 (0.6 – 5) 1.9 (1 – -18)
Niger 16 (3 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 38 (4 – -5)
Nigeria 275 (244 – 308) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (15 – -280)
North Macedonia 32 (18 – 44) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 17 (5.6 – -16)
Norway 25 (12 – 39) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -180 (6.4 – -6)
Oman 301 (262 – 331) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (12 – 85)
Pakistan 2261 (1935 – 2644) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (11 – 27)
Palestine 13 (3 – 22) Increasing 1.8 (1 – 2.7) 3.5 (1.9 – 19)
Panama 161 (134 – 190) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -390 (23 – -20)
Paraguay 25 (7 – 41) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) -76 (4.7 – -4.2)
Peru 4651 (3997 – 5215) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 15 (12 – 19)
Philippines 258 (215 – 302) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 38 (15 – -77)
Poland 422 (346 – 489) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (15 – -310)
Portugal 257 (212 – 302) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 31 (13 – -82)
Puerto Rico 73 (49 – 91) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 27 (9 – -26)
Qatar 1720 (1519 – 1952) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (15 – 31)
Romania 218 (177 – 252) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -160 (26 – -19)
Russia 10444 (9315 – 11474) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 200 (45 – -85)
Saudi Arabia 2920 (2569 – 3253) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (12 – 19)
Senegal 91 (68 – 107) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -42 (27 – -12)
Serbia 92 (71 – 115) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 22 (8.8 – -44)
Singapore 586 (516 – 655) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -42 (270 – -20)
Slovakia 11 (1 – 21) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.3) 8.9 (2.5 – -5.6)
Somalia 57 (37 – 77) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 63 (9.5 – -13)
South Africa 1042 (891 – 1186) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 13 (10 – 18)
South Korea 23 (12 – 32) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.4) -79 (8.9 – -7.2)
Spain 564 (492 – 631) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -11 (-22 – -7.2)
Sri Lanka 25 (11 – 35) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.6) 14 (4.8 – -15)
Sudan 204 (168 – 232) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 15 (8.7 – 53)
Sweden 598 (499 – 690) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 43 (19 – -140)
Switzerland 38 (23 – 48) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -42 (14 – -8.3)
Thailand 16 (0 – 30) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.5 – 3) 4.6 (1.7 – -6.2)
Tunisia 24 (0 – 43) Likely increasing 2.4 (0.7 – 4.1) 2.4 (1.2 – 200)
Turkey 1356 (1222 – 1471) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -66 (440 – -31)
Ukraine 451 (387 – 511) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 110 (25 – -45)
United Arab Emirates 955 (818 – 1086) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (13 – 32)
United Kingdom 2785 (2592 – 3021) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -24 (-40 – -18)
United Republic of Tanzania 11 (3 – 20) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1.1) -7.2 (23 – -3.1)
United States of America 25830 (22966 – 28914) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 34 (22 – 72)
Uruguay 27 (21 – 33) Increasing 1.8 (1.4 – 2.4) 5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan 60 (39 – 76) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 34 (8.4 – -16)
Venezuela 75 (51 – 97) Increasing 1.6 (1.2 – 1.9) 5.1 (3.5 – 9.7)
Zambia 44 (25 – 58) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -16 (38 – -6.5)